G²LM|LIC

The COVID-19 pandemic brought the dual crises of disease and the containment policies designed to mitigate it. Yet, there is little evidence on the impacts of these policies on women, who are likely to be especially vulnerable, in lower-income countries. We conduct a large phone survey and leverage India’s geographicallyvarying containment policies to estimate the association between both the pandemic and its containment policies, and measures of women’s well-being, including mental health and food security. On aggregate, the pandemic resulted in dramatic income losses, increases in food insecurity, and declines in female mental health. While potentially crucial to stem the spread of COVID-19 cases, we find that greater prevalence of containment policies is associated with increased food insecurity, particularly for women, and with reduced female mental health. Average containment levels are associated with a 39-40% increase in the likelihood of sadness, depression, and hopelessness among women and with an increase in the likelihood that women feel more worried by 45% of the variable mean. Particularly vulnerable groups of women, those with daughters and those living in female-headed households, experience larger declines in mental health.

Using detailed microdata, we document how migration-dependent households are especially vulnerable during the COVID-19 pandemic. We create pre- and post-COVID panel datasets for three populations in Bangladesh and Nepal, leveraging experimental and observational variation in prior migration dependence. We report 25 per cent greater declines in earnings and fourfold greater prevalence of food insecurity among migrant households since March. Causes include lower migration rates, less remittance income per migrant, isolation in origin communities, and greater health risks. We compile a large set of secondary data to demonstrate the extent of vulnerability worldwide and conclude with recommendations for policy targeted at migrants.

This study examines whether the random allocation of single and joint saving accounts to cash crop farmers in rural Ethiopia is associated with changes in decision-making authority and control over resources that ultimately lead to changes in labor effort, schooling allocations, income, consumption, agricultural investments, and crop output. Women and children work more when joint deposit accounts are available. Likewise, meaningful effects on school participation are reported for girls. Consistent with posited channels of intrahousehold bargaining models, women from households assigned to the joint saving treatment group show significant gains in autonomy and control of savings resources, and financial empowerment. While we find substantial gains in subjective wellbeing for single and joint account experimental groups, no meaningful impacts on agricultural crop output, income, and consumption are found. However, a systematic decumulation of livestock assets is observed across households assigned to the joint account treatment group.

We report on changes in economic activity, incomes, food security and mental health by tracking 2636 rural households in Nepal between September 2019 and May 2020 using six rounds of surveys during both lean and harvest seasons, before and after the COVID-19 lockdown. Labor supply in the village, labor migration, remittance earnings, and total incomes have fallen dramatically compared to harvest periods, and even relative to the pre-harvest lean season. Food insecurity has risen to levels seen during the lean season. Mental health indicators have dropped significantly below levels observed during the lean season. The COVID-19 pandemic luckily hit rural Nepal several months prior to the period of peak seasonal hunger, but this implies that economic outcomes are likely to continue to worsen over the next few months until the next rice harvest in October. Stored grain stocks have depleted steadily from January to April to May. The usual outflow of migration have almost stopped, which implies lower future remittances. The substantial erosion of income during lockdown is likely to reduce fertilizer and other agricultural investments during the upcoming planting season in July. This will lower yield during the November harvest, perpetuating the cycle of poverty.

A growing literature associates poverty with anomalies in decision-making. We investigate this link in a sample of over 3,000 small-scale farmers in Zambia, who were given the opportunity to exchange randomly assigned household items for alternative items of similar value. Analyzing a total of 5,842 trading decisions over a range of items, including cash, we show that exchange asymmetries are sizable and remarkably robust across items and experimental procedures. Using cross sectional, seasonal and randomized variation in financial resource availability, we show that exchange asymmetries decrease in magnitude when subjects are more constrained. Consistent with the interpretation that variation in decision stakes drive our results, we also show that trading probabilities increase when the value of the items involved is exogenously increased.