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The (Very) Long-Run Impacts of Cash Grants during a Crisis

It is repeatedly argued that the potential effects of giving cash grants to poor people are constrained by the fact that this income group is trapped in poverty, generating little permanent income effect. However, the literature points to mixed results, not only within short- and longer-term evaluations, but also between them. Therefore, the timing of a long-term study and the potential heterogeneity, specifically by gender, may play an important role in the effects of cash grants.

Motivated by the above, this working paper’s researchers set themselves to experimentally assess the long-run impacts of a randomized cash grant in Uganda on three pre-specified outcomes (after 4, 9, and 12 years), including a heterogeneity analysis by gender. By randomly assigning beneficiaries of the Ugandan YOP (Young Opportunities Program) to their treatment and control groups, the investigators find that although the positive income effects recognized after 4 years had vanished after 9 years, they were again found to be positive in this study during the Covid-19 pandemic. Also, considerably stronger positive effects on men should be highlighted, even though these income effects do not translate into higher food security. Read the detailed Working Paper here.

Childcare, Labor Supply, and Business Development: Evidence from Uganda

It is almost common knowledge that access to childcare is and has been fundamental for increasing women’s labor force participation in High-Income countries. However, it is not fully clear if the lessons drawn from such countries can be applied to contexts in low-income ones. Since in such settings evidence of the effects of childcare on women’s labor market outcomes is scarce and that of the effects it has on child development mixed, there is a research gap that needs to be filled.

Motivated by this, researchers of this Working Paper set themselves to experimentally assess this research question in Uganda. Their research design is not only intended to analyse the effect of childcare on to the labor market outcomes of women, but also on the ones of husbands and that of the household in general. Researchers therefore selected Women that had children between the age of 3 and 5 at the time of the experiment and either gave a cash grant, a childcare subsidy or nothing. Consequently and with this setting, investigators find that childcare leads to a 44 per cent increase in household income and that the childcare subsidy improves child development while the cash grant does not. Read the detailed Working Paper here.

Intergenerational Mobility in India: New Methods and Estimates across Time, Space and Communities

When thinking about the economic development of India in past decades there are two dominating points of view. On the one hand, that economic and political liberalization have increasingly led to a more equal society where intergenerational upward mobility has become more likely, while on the other, that India’s inequalities are persistent as ever. Approaches and methodologies intended to measure the changes and the development of such mobilities have mainly focused on education. Within this however, analyses have been constrained to analyse the relationship between parents’ education and the one of children. While the insights from such research endeavours can tell new and important stories, they are less meaningful when concentrating on subgroup analyses as they only measure progress against members of the same group.

Researchers in this Working Paper therefore set to analyse how intergenerational mobility in India has developed across years and between and within groups. Approaching mobility through education but applying modern methodologies to the analysis that departs from sole linear estimations researchers have three main Findings. First, that upward mobility has remained surprisingly constant, second, that there are significant changes in the cross-group distribution of upward mobility over time, particularly among sons, and thirdly that upward mobility is highest in places that are southern, urban and have high average education levels. Read the detailed Working Paper here.

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The (Very) Long-Run Impacts of Cash Grants during a Crisis

The economic consequences of COVID-19 lockdowns were significant for poor households in the Global South. In this crisis period, we investigate the very long-run impacts of a randomized cash grant in Uganda on three pre-specified outcomes, including a heterogeneity analysis by gender. In 2008, the program supported young adults through a one-time grant of 380 USD, labelled to invest in vocational training and tools to start a business. The program revealed considerable effects after four years, which vanished after nine years. We now find, 12 years after the intervention, during the COVID-19 pandemic, positive effects on income for the full sample, which are entirely driven by men. Treated men are also significantly more likely to be engaged in an income generating activity, though this does not translate into higher food security. We find no effects for women. Our findings of re-surfacing positive effects are important for the growing literature on long-run impacts of programming as we show that the timing of a follow-up matters. The presence of economic shocks should especially be taken into account when planning long-run follow-ups.

Childcare, Labor Supply, and Business Development: Experimental Evidence from Uganda

In a field experiment in Uganda, mothers of young children are randomly offered a childcare subsidy, an equivalent cash grant, both or nothing. Childcare leads to a 44 percent increase in household income, which is at least as large as the impact of the cash grant and driven by an increase in mothers’ business revenues and fathers’ wage earnings. The childcare subsidy also improves child development while the cash grant does not. Overall, our findings demonstrate that childcare subsidies can be an effective policy to simultaneously promote child development and reduce poverty in a low-income context.

Intergenerational Mobility in India: New Methods and Estimates across Time, Space and Communities

We study intergenerational mobility in India over time, across groups, and across space. We show that the modern set of rank-based mobility measures can be at best partially identified with education data. We develop a new measure of upward mobility that works well under data constraints common in developing countries. We find that intergenerational mobility in India has been constant and low since before liberalization. Among boys, rising mobility for Scheduled Castes is almost exactly offset by declining mobility among Muslims, a comparably sized group with few constitutional protections. Mobility among girls is lower, with less crossgroup variation over time. Mobility is highest in places that are southern, urban, and have high average education levels. A natural experiment suggests that affirmative action for Scheduled Castes has substantially improved their mobility. Our measures are relevant for the study of mobility in poorer countries and in historical contexts.

Glass Walls: Experimental Evidence on Access Constraints Faced by Women

Access barriers can substantially constrain individuals from obtaining benefits. Using experimental evidence from Pakistan, we show distance poses a major hurdle for women in accessing a valued and subsidized skills training program. Women who have to travel a few kilometers outside their village for training are four times less likely to complete it than those whose village received a training center. This penalty is not readily reconciled with measured financial or time costs of travel and over half of it is incurred upon crossing the village boundary. Exogenous stipend variation reveals this “boundary effect” is costly to offset, requiring a cash transfer equivalent to half of household expenditure. While informational and social interventions don’t ameliorate this barrier, reliable group transportation helps. The importance of secure transport and additional results suggest the boundary effect may be partly due to safety concerns. A notable share of the boundary effect is explained by having to traverse underpopulated spaces, a proxy for threats to safety in this context. Our work provides experimental confirmation that access constraints faced by women are significant, costly to address monetarily, but can be ameliorated through locally attuned interventions.

Women’s Mobility and Labor Supply: Experimental Evidence from Pakistan

In cities with conservative norms or high crime, female workers may face greater restrictions on their physical mobility. This limits women’s labor market opportunities and the pool of workers that firms can attract. In this study, we experimentally vary access to a transport service in Lahore, Pakistan, to quantify the overall impact of transport to work on men, women, and the differential impact of transport exclusively for women. We show that reducing physical mobility constraints has a large impact on job searching for women, including women who are not searching at baseline. Women’s response is driven by a women-only transport treatment arm, suggesting that safety and social acceptability, rather than simply cost, are key constraints.

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